Hard Compound’s "Much Too Soon" F1 2026 Season Predictions
Testing is officially in the books. From the "bogus" sessions in Barcelona to the real deal in Bahrain, the grid for the 2026 Formula One season is finally taking shape. New regulations, new power units, and two brand-new teams (welcome, Audi and Cadillac!) have turned the paddock into a hive of rumors, lies, and simulation-fueled hope.
The Car to Beat: Mercedes vs. Red Bull-Ford
The big question heading into 2026 is who nailed the new power unit regulations. Mercedes has the history, the resources, and the in-house operations. But Red Bull, now partnered with Ford, is the wildcard everyone is watching.
The Case for Mercedes: They dominated the last major regulation overhaul in 2014. Rumor has it George Russell and Kimi Antonelli are looking lethal in the sim, and Lando Norris seems suspiciously happy with that Mercedes power in the back of his McLaren.
The Case for Red Bull-Ford: It is a massive feat for a "new" entrant, but if (the now-gone) Christian Horner and the Red Bull Powertrains team have bridged the gap, they have the ultimate weapon: Max Verstappen.
The Verdict: Mercedes likely has the best outright car, but don't expect the 2014-level dominance. It’s going to be a scrap.
Championship Predictions: The Max Factor
Can anyone actually stop Max? Even in a "piss poor" 2025 car, Verstappen nearly dragged himself to a title. If the Red Bull-Ford is even remotely competitive, Max cements his legacy as the "best to ever do it" with another title.
The Hard Compound "Top 11" Predictions
We didn't stop at the podium. Or even with a Top 10. No, we went all the way to 11.
Max Verstappen -- in a competitive car, Max wins his 5th WDC, sealing him as probably the GOAT of Formula 1.
George Russell -- he will have the car. Does he have the full-season, 24-race mettle?
Charles Leclerc -- a great driver, who just happens to be driving when Ferrari isn't at their best, but Max Verstappen is.
Isack Hadjar -- the future.
Lando Norris -- without a F1-best car, he just can't quite keep up.
Lewis Hamilton -- with a much better showing than 2025, but age slows him down.
Oscar Piastri -- Aussie grit, but still not among the best.
Sergio Perez -- a surprise pick, he drives Cadillac to a great first year showing.
Liam Lawson -- a solid driver, he should have a long career in F1, despite the inglorious beginnings.
Kimi Antonelli -- has the car, but the sophomore jinx (plus youth), hold him back.
Carlos Sainz -- proving again that his model looks disguise a good driver.
The Ferrari Question: Hamilton’s Redemption?
Lewis Hamilton’s 2025 season at Ferrari was... statistically unbelievable. Zero podiums. Zero wins (unless you count that lone Sprint win in China). Entering 2026, he regains his form. But will not gain a championship.
The internal battle with Charles Leclerc remains the story to watch—especially if Lewis has had as much influence on the 2026 car design as rumors suggest.
New Blood: Audi and Cadillac
For the first time in years, we have 11 teams on the grid. Will the newcomers sink or swim?
The Alpine Floor: Surprise! Audi and Cadillac will not finish last. That "honor" is reserved for a faltering Alpine or even the struggling Aston Martin. Despite having Fernando Alonso driving and Adrian Newey designing.
The Rookie Watch: Isack Hadjar is the consensus pick for a sophomore breakout. The young driver will finally break the "Red Bull second-seat curse."
Batshit Crazy Predictions
Because what's an F1 predictions show without some wild speculation?
The Great Retirement: By the end of 2026, the "Old Guard"—Hamilton, Alonso, and Verstappen—will all walk away from the sport, frustrated by the new car characteristics.
The Management Shakeup: Fred Vasseur is out at Ferrari, after much fanfare but middling results. He will be replaced by none other than Sebastian Vettel.
American Innovation: Cadillac will launch a US-based driver development program led by Juan Pablo Montoya and Jenson Button will finally get more Americans on the grid.
